Macro environment
At the beginning of 2020, a major virus of the century, COVID-19, began to wreaked havoc on the global economy, with major economies facing the risk of a severe recession: The global economy will shrink by 4.8% this year, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s; The damage was $12 trillion; By 2020, global direct investment will drop by 30-40%, and the revenue of the world's top 5000 multinational companies will drop by 30% on average.
Industry as a representative of the globalization, cross-border electricity at the beginning of the outbreak has also been a significant impact, but because the government for the outbreak of rapid response, China has become the new champions league first return to growth since the outbreak of major economies, in the second quarter GDP growth from one quarter to 6.8% positive was 3.2%, but due to the depth of 1 quarter of negative growth - 6.8%, GDP fell by 1.6% in the first half of the year. With the gradual recovery of the economy, the supply chain of cross-border e-commerce has basically recovered. Take the Pearl River Delta, one of the core e-commerce supply chains, for example. In July, Guangdong's industrial power consumption increased by 2.3% year-on-year.
E-commerce exporters are full of vitality
Since the reform and opening up, China has been the "factory of the world", and export has been one of the main drivers of economic growth. Therefore, China's cross-border e-commerce is also export-oriented. According to economic and Social Network data, the transaction volume of China's cross-border e-commerce industry in 2019 exceeded 10 trillion yuan. Even with the impact of the trade war between China and the United States in 2018, the compound growth rate since 2014 is still over 20%. In the same period, the compound growth rate of China's overall import and export is only 3.61%, and the growth rate of cross-border e-commerce far exceeds that of traditional foreign trade. From the perspective of penetration, the proportion of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China's total import and export volume is also gradually increasing, from 15.89% in 2014 to 33.27% in 2019, which fully reflects the advantages of cross-border e-commerce over traditional foreign trade, such as convenience and low cost.
Cross-border electricity on the overall Numbers, the scale of export trade growth from $2014 in 3.57 trillion to 8.03 trillion in 2019, the compound growth of 17.61%, while in the growth of 31.4% over the same period of cross-border electricity import growth than differences, but cross-border electricity exports in 2019 accounted for 76.5% of the proportion of its industry is still is the mainstream of cross-border electricity.
Cross-border exports and electricity has been given priority to with B2B mode, accounted for close to 80%, although B2C mode ratio is not high, but far more than the same period growth B2B mode, cooperatives, according to data released from the net of China's cross-border electricity B2B model size from 2014-2019 compound growth of 16.45%, and B2C transaction model compound growth of 52.04% over the same, although cross-border electricity B2B growth is far lower than the B2C mode, appear even precipice 2018 type single digit growth, However, by 2019, the transaction scale of cross-border e-commerce B2B mode in China still accounts for over 80%, which is still high, but the trend of transformation to B2C mode is taking shape.
It is expected that the B2C model of China's export e-commerce will exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2020.
Dividend policy
The 2020 epidemic is both challenges and opportunities for cross-border electricity, spent the early outbreak in including supply chain, logistics and funds difficult, recovery and growth in cross-border electricity is ideal:, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs in the first half of this year, cross-border electricity regulatory platform customs import and export growth of 26.2%, the export growth of 28.7%. Before, the export under the B2C model could only be directly delivered to consumers, and the export of large quantities of goods had to be treated as general trade, so the overseas warehouse model could not be included in the policy management of cross-border e-commerce. Under the support of cross-border e-commerce B2B policy, overseas warehouse mode can be managed as cross-border e-commerce, which plays an important role in helping enterprises to further solve customs clearance, transportation, tax refund and other issues. In order to support the development of cross-border e-commerce, the government has introduced a series of favorable policies and measures.
On April 7, the State Council announced the establishment of 46 new comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce. Adding to the 59 previously approved zones, 105 comprehensive pilot zones will be set up across China, covering 30 provinces, forming a development pattern featuring inter-land, inter-sea and east-west economic cooperation. Local governments are also increasing their support for cross-border e-commerce. Zhejiang has launched a special campaign to cultivate 10,000 cross-border e-commerce stores through "opening global stores". It plans to build a number of cross-border e-commerce industrial parks, striving to build more than 10,000 cross-border e-commerce stores throughout the year and realize cross-border online retail export of more than 100 billion yuan. Fujian has constantly improved its overseas warehousing, logistics, distribution and after-sales service network, promoted overseas warehouses, experience stores and other models into the overseas retail system, and made efforts to solve the "last mile" problem of cross-border e-commerce exports. Guangdong has issued the implementation plan for seven comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce, making it clear that data exchange, mutual regulatory recognition and information exchange between customs, foreign exchange and tax authorities will be realized to better serve the development of e-commerce. On July 1, Beijing customs, tianjin customs 10 customs official cross-border electricity B2B export pilot, adding "9710" "9810" two export supervision code, including "9810" is applicable to domestic enterprises will export the goods through cross-border logistics service of overseas warehouse, through cross-border electric business platform to realize the transaction after the warehouse service from overseas buyers, such as the amazon FBA business scenarios, such as this for B2C cross-border electricity is a major positive, shipment and customs clearance will greatly improve the efficiency. Enterprises can "register once" and "connect one point", and enjoy preferential inspection and customs transfer policies.
Related favorable policies introduced gradually, will lead to more traditional foreign trade enterprise transformation, according to Hugo net "Hugo report in the second quarter, according to research 143 foreign trade enterprises on the choice of cross-border electricity for layout, 46% expressed interest in your foreign trade enterprises to form a team to do cross-border electricity, 23% said they would do distribution, 18% consider through cross-border supply cross-border sellers choose product platform (domestic and cross-border small B). Thirteen percent said they would find a third party to operate cross-border e-commerce. From the perspective of cross-border e-commerce channels, among the 143 foreign trade enterprises mentioned above, 74% said they would consider becoming a third-party platform, and 26% said they would set up independent stations/brand stations.
Looking forward to
The black swan events of 2020 to accelerate the catalytic cross-border electricity mature business model, China's cross-border electricity has (bud) development by 1.0 to 2.0 (stage of rapid growth) now 3.0 (optimization development stage) from the pattern of gradually formed, the industry growth rate from 25% to 60%, the number of cross-border electricity through 6 m, to the electric commercial law of promote the formalization of industry, more and more small micro enterprise business as a cross-border electricity industry mergers and acquisitions appear constantly, the securities market gradually formed cross-border electricity plate.
However, global consumers' consumption habits have changed significantly in 2020. Due to safety concerns and the closure of stores and supermarkets, global consumers are increasingly turning to the Internet to meet their daily needs. According to Salesforce Shopping Index, global digital transaction revenue increased by 20% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period last year. Amazon's North American sales in Q1 2020 increased by +29% to $46.1 billion, and its international sales increased by +18% to $19.1 billion. Sales in 2020Q2 +40%.
From the current development situation of cross-border e-commerce in various countries around the world, it is expected that in the next few years, the global B2C cross-border e-commerce transaction scale will continue to grow at a high speed, with the growth rate between 10% and 20%. According to preliminary estimates, by 2025, the global B2C cross-border e-commerce transaction scale will exceed us $2 trillion.
However, as the United States is an important trading country for China, if the trade war continues to intensify, it will have a negative impact on many industries, including cross-border e-commerce. Therefore, planning and layout should be made in advance, such as exploring more overseas markets. Fine operation of products, the use of brand advantages to obtain higher profit margins and other risk diversification.
Risks and opportunities coexist. Cross-border e-commerce is an industry that follows the trend of The Times and will become a mainstream way of shopping in the future. Cross-border e-commerce has great potential.
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