Today, China’s opportunity lies in strengthening its social security system, optimizing resource allocation, and fostering a clearer, more predictable business environment for private enterprises. This will boost confidence among households and businesses and unlock productivity potential. If the pace of transformation is accelerated, China’s inherent advantages in economic scale, talent pool, and technological accumulation will better enable more balanced and higher-quality growth.
Against this backdrop, setting China’s 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5% to 5% leaves flexible room to address financial risks and the aforementioned structural challenges, while helping maintain overall macroeconomic stability.
Global Times: What is your outlook on China’s development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, particularly amid global uncertainties such as shifting geopolitical landscapes and supply chain restructuring?
Melissa: The next five years will be a critical transitional phase for China’s economy to shift growth drivers. At the same time, three long-term trends — demographic change, the rise of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, and the green and low-carbon transition — are bringing both opportunities and challenges to economic development.
In this context, China’s economic growth rate may moderate somewhat, but the importance of growth quality will become even more prominent. Key metrics for measuring development effectiveness will include how much growth stems from productivity gains, whether the benefits of growth reach a wider cross-section of society, and whether growth effectively translates into tangible improvements in household income.
A successful economic transition should support the modern service sector and emerging industries to create more high-quality jobs. Meanwhile, strengthening vocational skills training, improving the social security system, and building a more enabling institutional environment for private enterprises will help workers achieve higher-quality employment.
Global Times: How has China effectively translated strategic commitment into action?
Melissa: I believe the next five years will see three intertwined trends in China — demographic transition, technological change, and green and low-carbon development. Policy-making should mitigate risks while actively unlocking new sources of productivity and job growth. Two policy priorities stand out in this process: increasing investment in human capital and improving resource allocation efficiency. Both priorities have been clearly emphasized in China’s high-level policy guidance.
Translating China’s macroeconomic guidance into concrete policies can be structured around three pillars: skills, health, and social security.
On skills, China should strengthen its education and training systems to better meet emerging demands for digital literacy, critical thinking, and socio-emotional competencies. Developing lifelong learning and flexible employment models will also help extend workers’ careers and effectively ease pressures from demographic change.
In health, improving medical and healthcare as well as elderly care systems will help reduce the risk of non-communicable diseases and address growing demand for long-term care.
On social security, advancing more balanced coverage of social security systems across regions and groups — with a special focus on migrant workers and those in flexible employment — will help reduce precautionary savings, unlock consumption potential, and promote economic structural adjustment. This policy agenda naturally raises a core fiscal issue: how to modernize the fiscal system to better adapt to new spending needs.
When it comes to improving resource allocation efficiency, the top priority is to boost overall productivity and facilitate the smooth flow of capital, land, labor, and other factors toward higher-return sectors. This relies on building a transparent and predictable regulatory framework and financial sector practices that align risk and return pricing more consistently and efficiently.
Institutional-wise, China’s development is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals, long-term policy vision, effective coordination across levels of government, and a strong ability to turn strategies into action through pilot programs and dynamic adjustments. These institutional strengths have supported China in accomplishing major tasks such as eradicating absolute poverty, and they will remain vital assets for navigating the next stage of development.
Global Times: From an international perspective, what valuable lessons can China’s 15th Five-Year Plan offer other economies, especially in sustainable development, technological innovation, and long-term strategic planning?
Melissa: China is actively sharing its practical development experience with other developing countries. For instance, in December 2024, China and the World Bank Group jointly launched the Global Center for Ecosystems and Transitions. The center aims to bring China’s experience in ecosystem conservation and restoration to a broader international platform, focusing on actionable key questions: which measures work, what they cost, and how to better balance development needs while achieving environmental benefits.
Beyond this center, South-South knowledge exchanges facilitated by the World Bank Group have consistently drawn on China’s reform practices, adapting them to local conditions in other countries. For example, we have organized a series of study visits and exchange programs, inviting officials from other developing countries to rural China to learn firsthand about China’s successful approaches to rural revitalization, water resource management, and poverty reduction.
